Exbookie Arena Football Week 2

ACE-ACE · Feb 3, 2005

IN THE LAST 3 WEEKS ....I HAVE BEEN SETTING VALUE ON DIFF STATS....IT NOT THE SAME AS THE NFL......BUT ONLY EIGHT GAMES A WEEK TO CAP....

I WILL DO THE LINE VS "MY LINE" JUST LIKE THE NFL...

BUT THE MONEY WILL BE UNDER $1,00 DOLLAR "BETS ONLY"

AS IN THE NFL "MY LINE" DOES NOT KICK IN FOR 3 MORE WEEKS

AFL IS FUN TO WATCH!!!!

MY PICK FOR TONIGHT ARI UNDER 91 POINTS FOR $300.00

ARI QB OUT.....BACKUP QB JOE GERMAINE WILL BE IN....

THE LINE LAST WEEK FOR ARIZONA WAS 92
58-38=96....WITHOUT QB IT WOULD OF GONE UNDER

ORLANDO....OVER AND UNDER WAS 89
39-36= 75.....-14 POINT UNDER THE TOTAL.....

I SEE THIS GAME TOTAL AT 82.....

MY 1ST BET....GUT PLAY

GOOD LUCK TO ALL

ACE

AFLGuru · Feb 3, 2005

Welcome aboard Ace. Can't say I agree with the call tonight, but it's great having ya aboard. I'd love to know the values in which you put forth to these statistics and would love to talk about it and compare it to my system that spit this game out at about 101. If you'd rather email me instead of posting the surely extensive list of values and formulas, the email is HawksTrumpet@cfl.rr.com. Can't wait to see all of this. Rode you the 2nd half of the NFL season, and I can't wait to see how you do with the AFL.

Thanks Ace! Best of luck!

--AFLGuru:toast:

ACE-ACE · Feb 4, 2005

A PUSH ON THE UNDER 91.....I WILL NOT COUNT TIES....

NO VS NASHVILLE... I SEE THIS GAME AS A UNDER THEY BOTH LIKE TO RUN......MY BET UNDER 91 FOR $300.00

LA VS GEO....IN THE 1ST GAME LA GOT OFF TO A SLOW START..

LA QB WAS NO 2 LAST YEAR AND GIVE ONLY 3 POINT....LA WINS BY 14 OR MORE....

MY BET LA-3 FOR $800.00
UNDER 94....FOR $200.00.....

I'M TRYING TO GET MY FEET WET BEFORE "MY LINE KICKS IN"

AFLGURU.....YOU HAVE A LOT OF KNOWLEDGE ON AFL....PART OF MY PICK ARE BASE ON THEM....THE OTHER IS ME 'CAPPING THE GAME....AFTER WEEK 4 ....WITH WHAT I WILL LEARN FROM YOU ...AND PUTTING "MY LINE" TO WORK.....WE WILL SEE WHAT HAPPEN!!.....

THIS LOOK EASIER THAN NFL!!!!!

ACE

AFLGuru · Feb 4, 2005

Ace--

I really think you're off with some stats on this... I hate to say I'm gonna fade you AND PPeter on this one, but the only thing that has kept me from pulling the trigger on over in the Nashville/NO game is the fact that you and PPeter are now both on the under. You're wrong about both teams liking to run the ball. New Orleans ran the ball last year with Dan Curran at fullback. Now Curran is in NFL Europe and New Orleans threw the ball more times (51) last week than anyone else. They ran the ball twice the entire game last week. Yes, Nashville ran the ball 22 times last week. But New Orleans only ran the ball twice, and the guy that carried the ball is now on IR.

In terms of the QB for LA, I don't know if you're talking about Tony Graziani (now in Philadelphia) or John Kaleo (who certainly isn't #2 in the AFL in passing efficiency... and wasn't last year either... not by a country mile). All that being said, I don't know whether or not I can agree with either or your picks here. I do believe the LA/GA game is under, but I don't know about the side. Would it really surprise me if LA won the game??? No, not really... but I don't think there's a value in taking a worse team that is giving points.

Just my two cents. Best of luck Ace. Don't mean to sound too harsh on ya. Just want to set you straight before you start kicking in the real bucks.

--AFLGuru:toast:

ACE-ACE · Feb 4, 2005

Aflguru....you Are Right About The Qb....the One I Was Thinking About Was Trade To Phi.....john Kaleo Still Is The Better Qb In This Game
11 Year Exp. I Will Take That Any Day!!!...

Aflguru I Still Have A Long Ways To Go!!

Keep Putting Me In Check....i Need It

Ace

AFLGuru · Feb 4, 2005

Ace--

Must remember that Jim Kubiak has also been around the block a bit (I believe this is his 8th season in the league... don't quote me on that though). Both QBs are older than dirt and both are simply asked to not lose the game. Georgia's secondary/WR corps are better than that of Los Angeles in my estimation because of their size (they're all over 6'0" and one of them is 6'5"). I really think this game features two teams that are relatively even at the QB spot, advantage LA's line, and advantage Georgia's receivers. Both teams are in a really rough spot because of the divisons that they're in... the difference is that last week Georgia took out their division rival, while LA faltered down the stretch in theirs. Don't worry buddy, I'll keep you up with everything you do this year. Still love having you and your insight aboard!

--AFLGuru

ACE-ACE · Feb 4, 2005

BASE ON BOTH QB OLDER THAN DIRT!!!

PLUS

THE OVER AND UNDER AVG

BOOKIE AVG ON GEO IS 96 (LAST 10 GAMES)
BOOKIE AVG ON LA IS 100 (LAST 10 GAMES)

GEO BEEN UNDER 60% OF THE TIME....AVG 84 POINTS A GAME
LA BEEN UNDER 80% OF THE TIME ....AVG 95 POINTS A GAME
..............................................TOTAL 179....UNDER

ADDING $600.00 TO THE UNDER 94

ACE-ACE · Feb 4, 2005

RECAP...........

N.O. UNDER 91 FOR $300.00..

LA-3 FOR $800.00

L.A.UNDER 94....FOR $800.00.....

AFLGuru · Feb 4, 2005

Nice job Ace! Now you've got it. LA = Good defense, bad offense. Geo = In Southern Division. Southern Division = best defense, less offense. Now we're talking!

Best of luck tonight.

--AFLGuru:toast:

ACE-ACE · Feb 5, 2005

RECAP...........

N.O. UNDER 91......... $315.00 LOST

LA-3 FOR................. $800.00 WINNER

L.A.UNDER 94.......... $800.00 WINNER

2-1....+$1,285.00(MY FEET ARE WET!!!)

Exchange · Feb 5, 2005

Ace, great call on the UNDER in the LA game. Cashed in! Thank you!

AFLGuru · Feb 5, 2005

Nice job Ace... welcome aboard.

--AFLGuru

Roxygurl · Feb 5, 2005

its great to see you here ace. im addicted to afl and im looking forward to yours and aflguru and ppeters picks the rest of the weekend.its gameday baby!

ACE-ACE · Feb 5, 2005

COLORADO VS GRAND RAPIDS

ITS LIKE AFLGURU SAID.....G.R. IS GOING TO COVER SOME GAME THIS YEAR....

THE OVER AND UNDER

THE BOOKIE AVG. FOR COL IS 97.2 THEY HAVE BEEN DOING 96.8
THE BOOKIE AVG FOR G.R IS 95 THEY BEEN DOING 92...

SO THE LINE IS TIGHT AND BOTH...

SO ACE WHAT DO YOU DO.....
(THERE THAT VOICE AGAIN)

SO TRYING TO KEEP MY FEET WET...CANT WAIT UNTILL WEEK 4..."MY LINE KICKS IN".....I FIND VALUE IN A 7 POINT TEASER!!!!
I KNOW I SHOULD NOT BET A TEASER....JUST WALK AWAY FROM THIS GAME!!!

I KNOW COL WILL WIN THIS GAME...SO LET BRING IT DOWN TO 6 1/2
ITS AT 13 1/2 92 1/2.....
I ALSO SEE IT LIKE AFLGURU..... GOING OVER HERE..

MY BET IS A 7 POINT TEASER
COLORADO-6 1/2 AND OVER 85 1/2 FOR $300.00

GOOD LUCK TO ALL

ACE

Roxygurl · Feb 5, 2005

I LIKE THE OVER. WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE VEGAS/SJ GAME? IM WANTING TO TAKE LV+7 AND UNDER THE TOTAL.

ACE-ACE · Feb 5, 2005

roxygurl said:
I LIKE THE OVER. WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE VEGAS/SJ GAME? IM WANTING TO TAKE LV+7 AND UNDER THE TOTAL.

BASE ON THIS YEAR.....I CAN SEE WHY YOU LIKE LV AND UNDER

BASE ON THE TEAM AND WHAT IT CAN DO(LAST YEAR)

BOOKIE AVG ON THE OVER AND UNDER IS LV 103...SAN JOSE 101
THEY AVG..........................................LV 102...SAN JOSE 97.6

THAT OVER AND UNDER LINE IS TIGHT!!!

LAS VEGAS HAD 4 GAMES LAST YEAR OVER 103 (LAST 10 PLAYED)
SAN JOSE HAD 3 GAMES LAST YEAR OVER101 (LAST 10 PLAYED)

I DONT THINK I WILL BET THIS GAME ...BETTER GAMES COMING SUNDAY....
BUT I LEAN TO LV MORE THAN SJ

ACE

AFLGuru · Feb 5, 2005

Roxy--

I can't suggest going against San Jose at home against anyone, especially a team that was really held pretty well by Los Angeles at home. Vegas is going to score their points and so is San Jose, so I don't know about the under either. San Jose typically gets really pissed after getting beat and destroys someone... that being said, I think Vegas is going to be more of a sacrificial lamb tonight and less of an actual game. If Vegas gets to 45, this game is going to be over the total as well.

--AFLGuru:toast:

Roxygurl · Feb 5, 2005

ok guys i'll just wait for your sunday plays. afl isnt something i look closely at like i do college football & basketball.your my experts on all things afl. im going to the san diego riptides try outs today to support a friend who wants to play. can you believe nfl dud craig whelihan signed with them?! how funny.

AFLGuru · Feb 5, 2005

Curse you for mentioning Craig Whelihan... He destroyed the Predators chances of winning anything for the year he was there. The guy had an AFL record 24 fumbles lost that year... yes, over one a game... mostly thanks to not being able to handle a snap.

yubnolck · Feb 5, 2005

Well Ace, you made me alot of money in the NFL, so i am going to have to jump on the band wagon and start betting some Arena Football. Thanks again for the NFL season and good luck to us in Arena Football. Thanks Yubnolck :103631605